1. Inflation in July was driven by transportation and fuel prices

The National Extended Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) – considered the preview of Brazil’s official inflation – rose 0.30% in July, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This increase was mainly driven by the Transportation group, which recorded a rise of 1.12%, contributing 0.23 percentage points (p.p.) to the overall index. Airfare, with an increase of 19.21%, added 0.12 p.p., while gasoline rose 1.43%, for an impact of 0.07 p.p.

Compared to June, when the IPCA-15 rose 0.39%, there was decrease of 0.09 p.p. – a result above the market projection, which expected an increase of 0.23% for July.

Over the last 12 months, the index showed a rise of 4.45%, surpassing the market expectation of 4.38%. For the year, inflation has so far accumulated an increase of 2.82%.

G1: IPCA-15: preços sobem 0,30% em julho, com altas de passagem aérea e combustíveis
Folha: Inflação medida pelo IPCA-15 desacelera para 0,30%, mas fica acima das expectativas

2. Number of Brazilians facing hunger falls to 8.4 million, according to a UN report

The number of Brazilians experiencing hunger dropped to 8.4 million between 2021 and 2023, representing 3.9% of the population, according to a report released by five specialized UN agencies. This figure is lower than the 10.1 million people, or 4.7% of the population, who faced hunger from 2020 to 2022.

In addition to the reduction in extreme hunger, 31 million Brazilians are no longer in moderate or severe food insecurity. However, this progress was not sufficient to remove Brazil from the UN Hunger Map, which includes countries with more than 2.5% of their population undernourished. To be removed from the map, a country must maintain a malnutrition rate below 2.5% for three consecutive years. Brazil was off this list from 2014 to 2016 but returned during the pandemic.

In response to this challenge, Brazil is leading the Global Alliance Against Hunger within the G20. The country is expected to contribute around $9-$10 million, roughly half of the projected investment of $18-$20 million by 2030. The alliance is the main initiative of Brazil’s G20 presidency to combat food insecurity.

O Globo: Número de brasileiros com fome cai para 8,4 milhões, diz ONU
O Globo: Brasil deve arcar com até US$ 10 milhões, metade do valor para custear a Aliança Global contra a Fome

3. Real estate credit grows 30% in the first half of the year, boosted by FGTS

Real estate financing in Brazil totaled R$149 billion in the first half of 2024, a 30% increase compared to the same period in 2023, according to the Brazilian Association of Real Estate Credit and Savings Entities (ABECIP).

Real estate credit with savings resources (SBPE) reached R$82.1 billion, representing a 7% increase. In contrast, financing via the Workers’ Severance Guarantee Fund (FGTS) grew by 75%, totaling R$67.2 billion, driven by the revival of the Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) program.

ABECIP forecasts that in 2024, real estate credit with savings resources will grow by 7.6%, reaching R$164 billion, possibly ranking among the top three historical results. If these projections are confirmed, the total loan volume (SBPE and FGTS) could reach around R$270 billion in 2024, a 7.8% increase compared to 2023.

Valor: Crédito imobiliário cresce 30% no 1º semestre, puxado por recursos do FGTS

4. Global IPOs decline in the first half of the year, but Americas register growth

Global initial public offerings (IPOs) decreased in both volume and number of operations in the first half of 2024, according to a study by consulting firm EY. The number of IPOs fell by 12% – from 624 to 551 – and capital raised decreased by 16% – from $62.5 billion to $52.2 billion. This decline was most pronounced in the Asia-Pacific region, which saw a 43% reduction in the number of IPOs and a 73% drop in capital raised, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown.

By contrast, the number of IPOs increased by 12% in the Americas, totaling 86 operations, and capital raised rose by 67%, reaching $17.8 billion. However, Brazil did not contribute to this growth, remaining without new listings on the stock exchange for two consecutive years. It is expected that the Brazilian market will potentially resume IPOs at the end of 2024 or in 2025 as global markets recover.

Valor: IPOs no mundo encolhem no 1° semestre, mas volume nas Américas cresce

5. Global tech outage could result in $1 billion in insurance claims

The insurance industry is bracing for the possibility of claims totaling as much as $1 billion following last Friday’s (July 19) global tech outage, which exposed critical vulnerabilities in a global economy reliant on a few software platforms. A faulty update from security company CrowdStrike triggered chaos across sectors such as airlines and retail, affecting over 8 million Windows devices around the world.

Cybersecurity experts warn that the incident underscores the systemic nature of cyber risk, demonstrating that a simple software update can cause as many problems as a malicious cyber-attack. While some insurers consider it too early to estimate the claims, initial estimates suggest losses exceeding $1 billion.

Insurers are anticipating a wave of claims, primarily related to business interruptions and system shutdowns, while the full impact of the blackout is still being assessed. 

Folha/Financial Times: Seguradoras podem enfrentar sinistro de US$ 1 bilhão por apagão global