1. Financial market increases 2024 GDP prediction

For the sixth consecutive time, the financial market increased its growth projection for the Brazilian economy in 2024. According to Boletim Focus, published by the Central Bank on Tuesday (March 26th), the new forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 1.85%.

The document, presenting the expectations of economists and analysts, also predicts a further reduction in inflation. They expect the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to end the year at 3.75%, compared to the prediction of 3.79% made the week prior.

G1: Focus: mercado financeiro reduz estimativa de inflação para 2024 e 2025

2. Brazilians see worsening economy, inflation, and unemployment

The number of Brazilians who believe the Brazilian economy has worsened has increased in the last few months. The number of people who believe there are higher inflation and unemployment rates has also increased, according to Datafolha. The negative perception worsened since December, going from 35% to 41%. With these results, the portion of people who think things are worse has surpassed that of those who believe things are better, which went from 33% to 28% since December.

Datafolha’s poll suggests that the slow economic activity in the last two quarters of 2023 and the weak recovery in the beginning of 2024 might have influenced the answers. Increased food prices, caused by climate issues in the South and Center-West, have also played a part.

Folha de S. Paulo: Brasileiro vê piora na economia, na inflação e no desemprego, mostra Datafolha

3. Brazilian women make 19.4% less than men, according to Salary Transparency Report

According to the 1st National Salary Transparency and Remuneration Criteria Report, published by the Ministry of Labor on Monday the 25th, Brazilian women make an average of 19.4% less than men who perform the same roles. The study assessed 49,587 companies with over 100 employees.

The data reveals that white and Asian men have an average income of BRL 5,718 per month, while women of these same classification receive BRL 4,552. In management positions the difference between the salary of men and women can be up to 25.2%. This is the first such study to be conducted since the law on equal pay and remuneration criteria between women and men in the country came into effect. 

Exame: Mulheres recebem 19,4% a menos que os homens, aponta Relatório de Transparência Salarial
Folha de S. Paulo: Mulheres recebem salários 19,4% menores que homens, diz relatório do governo

4. Brazil loses 0.1% of its GDP per year due to serious climate events

The Brazilian government is working to promote opportunities encouraging companies to get involved in the low-carbon economy, aiming to mitigate the impact of climate change. According to the executive secretary of the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MMA), João Paulo Capobianco, the consequences of climate change amount to annual losses equivalent to 0.1% of the country’s GDP.

Capobianco mentioned many initiatives, including offering green bonds, currency exchange hedges and financing credit lines with benefits for low-carbon projects. The executive secretary also highlighted the importance of Brazil in leading efforts to a global low-carbon economy, saying COP30 represents a key opportunity to advance this agenda.

Valor: Brasil perde 0,1% do PIB por ano com agravamento dos eventos climáticos

5. Tax reduction could lead the country towards tax equality

The federal government has delayed resolving a problem caused by an ordinance that exempted from income taxes purchases of up to US$50 from international e-commerce sites. The measure deeply impacted the Federal Revenue Department’s project Remessa Conforme, which aims to fight the fraud committed by these websites through the simulation of transactions between two individuals abroad and in Brazil, that were exempt from taxes.

The measure ignored the lack of tax equality. While taxes on the textile industry – the second largest employer sector in the country, with 2 million jobs – is 80%, retailers pay 109% in imported products. The damages caused by this tax disparity are clear: many stores have closed, and millions of jobs have been lost. 

Terra: Redução imediata de impostos pode salvar empregos no Brasil e gerar isonomia tributária