1. Census: Brazilian population is aging rapidly and will begin to shrink by 2042

In just a few years, Brazil will start to see its population decline. By 2042, less than two decades from now, the number of inhabitants in the country will begin to decrease, while the population share of elderly people will only continue to grow. These figures come from the 2024 Population Projections, released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on Thursday (22). For the first time, the data is based on the 2022 Census.

The IBGE data points to an earlier-than-expected decrease with a notable increase in the percentage of elderly people. In the previous projection, the expectation was that the population reduction would begin around 2048. Low fertility rates and fewer births contribute to the aging population. By 2070, about 37.8% of Brazilians will be elderly, impacting the average age, which is expected to reach 48.4 years. Some states, such as Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul, already have more inhabitants aged 60 and over than young people aged 0 to 14 years.

The average age of mothers in Brazil is expected to reach 31.3 years by 2070, which shows that women are postponing motherhood. Women will have fewer children and later in life, reflecting the social changes that are currently underway.

O Globo: Censo 2022: Brasil está envelhecendo rapidamente e população começará a encolher já em 2042
O Globo: Filhos? Cada vez menos, e só depois dos 30: idade média das mães brasileiras será de 31,3 em 2070
Valor: IBGE: População brasileira começará a encolher a partir de 2042; pandemia antecipou processo

2. After 3 months of negotiations, Senate approves payroll tax relief bill

On Tuesday (20), the Senate approved the bill extending payroll tax relief for companies in 17 sectors and for municipalities with up to 156,000 inhabitants. The decision concludes more than three months of negotiations between the government and Congress.

The tax relief allows companies to pay rates ranging from 1% to 4.5% on gross revenue, instead of the 20% on payroll for Social Security. The sectors included are communication, footwear, call centers, clothing and apparel, and construction, among others. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad described the approval as an “institutional advancement” and did not rule out the possibility of additional compensation measures by December, if necessary.

The bill will now be submitted to the Chamber of Deputies and must be signed into law by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by September 11th, the deadline set by the Supreme Federal Court (STF).

Folha: Senado aprova PL da desoneração após 3 meses de negociação
Agência Brasil: Senado aprova reoneração da folha de pagamento a partir de 2025

3. Focus report: For the fifth consecutive week, financial market raises IPCA projection for 2024

The Focus report, released by the Central Bank on Monday (19), revealed that financial market analysts have raised their projection for the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for 2024 from 4.20% to 4.22%, marking the fifth consecutive week of increases. Meanwhile, the inflation expectation for 2025 has decreased to 3.91%.

In addition to inflation, the forecasts for GDP growth in 2024 were also adjusted, rising from 2.20% to 2.23%. However, the projection for 2025 was reduced from 1.92% to 1.89%.

Regarding the Selic rate, the expectations for 2024 remained at 10.50%, but for 2025 there was an increase from 9.75% to 10%, reflecting potential future adjustments in the country’s monetary policy. The exchange rate projections also saw adjustments, with the estimated dollar rate for the end of 2024 rising from R$5.30 to R$5.31.

Exame: Boletim Focus: mercado eleva projeção do IPCA de 2024 pela quinta semana consecutiva

4. Northeast region begins to sell green hydrogen with
first national contract

On Thursday (22), yhe Northeast Consortium, in partnership with the state government of Rio Grande do Norte, announced the signing of Brazil’s first green hydrogen commercialization contract, marking the first issuance of an invoice for this type of sale. The agreement, signed with CPFL Energia and Mizu Cimentos, involves investments of R$ 40 million by 2030.

With over 85% of the country’s renewable energy production concentrated in the region, the Northeast aims to establish itself as a leader in green hydrogen production. Currently, the region has projects totaling 72.8 GW in generation capacity, with the potential to produce 11 million tons of green hydrogen per year. Rio Grande do Norte, already prominent in solar and wind energy production, is leading this movement, attracting investment and innovation, and positioning the Northeast as a global hub for clean energy.

Folha: Nordeste emitirá primeira nota fiscal para hidrogênio verde

5. 22 listed companies posted profits above R$ 1 billion in Q2 2024

Twenty-two companies listed on B3, the Brazilian stock exchange, reported profits exceeding R$ 1 billion in the second quarter of 2024, according to a survey by Elos Ayta Consulting.

Oi leads the list with a profit of R$ 15 billion, driven by accounting effects related to its judicial recovery plan, without a direct impact on the company’s cash flow. Vale holds the second position, with a profit of R$ 14.6 billion, reflecting its strong performance in iron ore production and export.

Making up seven of the ten most profitable companies – including six banks and one insurance firm – the financial sector also stands out, demonstrating its resilience and ability to generate significant results.

G1: 22 empresas da bolsa brasileira tiveram lucros maiores que R$ 1 bilhão no 2° trimestre; veja a lista