1. Central Bank revises forecast for the Brazilian economy in 2024 and following years

Data from the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI) released by Brazil’s Central Bank shows that the estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was revised upward from 2.3% to 3.2% in 2024, and the projected official inflation index (IPCA) increased from 4% to 4.3%. The reassessment comes mainly due to a positive surprise regarding the country’s economy, which expanded beyond expectations in this year’s second quarter.

Despite successive surprises, slower growth is expected in the second half of 2024 and throughout 2025, due to expectations of less fiscal stimulus, interruption of the expansionary monetary policy started in 2023, the lower degree of idle production factors, and the absence of a strong external impulse, considering the outlook for global growth in 2025 is similar to that of 2024.

For 2025, the Central Bank projects growth of 2%, with variations in the components of supply and demand being reasonably homogeneous and in general smaller than those expected for 2024.

Exame: Banco Central eleva projeções de PIB para 3,2% e de IPCA para 4,3%

2. Brazil’s Industrial Confidence Index falls in September

According to Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Brazil’s Industrial Confidence Index (ICI) dropped by 1.2 points compared to the previous month, reaching 100.5 points. This is the first decline since March of this year, due to a worsening of both the perception of the current situation and expectations for the coming months. The result has a compensatory character in a year marked by improvements in demand and reduction of stocks, but it raises a warning for the coming months.

The biggest cause for the fall of the ICI in September came from the Expectations Index (IE), an indicator of perception about future months, which fell by 1.7 points in the month, down to 98.1 points, after two consecutive months of increase. Regarding expectations, the main negative highlight was the indicator that measures business trends in the next six months, which recorded a decline of 3.5 points to 97.6 points, interrupting a sequence of six consecutive increases.

CNN: Confiança da indústria no Brasil retoma queda em setembro, diz FGV

3. Primary forestry production saw record growth in 2023

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released the results of the survey on Extractive Agriculture and Forestry Production (PEVS 2023), which recorded the primary forest production in 4,924 Brazilian municipalities. Together, they achieved BRL 37.9 billion in production value. The data shows an increase of 11.2% in 2023, lower than that of 2022, which was 13.4%, but it represents a record in the sector’s production value.

The value of forestry production (planted forests for commercial purposes) has exceeded that of extractive agriculture (products collected from native forests) since 1998. The Southern and Southeastern regions of Brazil comprise 69.1% of the total national production value. The state of Minas Gerais continues to report the highest production value for this segment, reaching BRL 8.3 billion in 2023, which represents 26% of the national production value of forestry, followed by the state of Paraná, with BRL 5.1 billion, 16% of the national total.

Agência Brasil: Valor da produção primária florestal aumenta 11,2% em 2023

4. Foreign tourists spent over BRL 26 billion in Brazil in 2024 

Data released by Brazil’s Central Bank shows that from January to August of this year Brazil welcomed more than 4.45 million international tourists, an increase of 10.7% compared to the same period in 2023 and 1% more than recorded in the first eight months of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the Ministry of Tourism, Brazil wants to attract more international visitors by improving air connectivity and the tourist infrastructure at destinations. Additionally, the ministry wants to show the world that Brazil is a safe country that concentrates natural beauty, culture, and gastronomy in one place.

Per the National Tourism Plan (PNT), the goal is to turn Brazil into South America’s most sought-after destination by 2027. 

Carta Capital: Gastos de estrangeiros no Brasil chegam a R$ 26 bilhões em 2024

5. Foreign investment in Brazil grows to US$51.2 billion

Brazil’s Central Bank reported that direct foreign investment in the Brazilian economy grew by 14.3% in the cumulative eight months of this year. During this period, foreigners brought US$51.2 billion in investments, compared to US$44.8 billion in the same period of 2023. This is the greatest inflow of investment in the country since 2022 (US$55 billion).

Foreign investments in the Brazilian economy were sufficient to offset the US$30.4 billion deficit in external accounts from January to August, compared to US$13.5 billion in the same period last year. This is also the biggest negative result for the first eight months of a year since 2019, when the deficit reached US$42.5 billion, according to data from the monetary authority.

G1: Rombo das contas externas é o maior em cinco anos até agosto; investimento estrangeiro também avança