1. IMF raises Brazil’s GDP growth projection to 2.4% for 2025

On Tuesday (16), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its forecast for Brazil’s growth in 2025 upward, accounting for the ongoing reconstruction efforts following the floods in Rio Grande do Sul.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, there will be a 2.4% increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) next year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the forecast in April. Brazil’s GDP had a good start to the year, growing 0.8% in the first three months compared to the previous period. However, results from the second quarter will be impacted by the heavy rains that affected Rio Grande do Sul in April and May.

InfoMoney: FMI eleva para 2,4% projeção de crescimento do PIB do Brasil em 2025

2. Unemployment is the main cause for delinquency in Brazil, says survey

Unemployment is the main factor contributing to delinquency in Brazil. According to a survey conducted by the debt negotiation platform Acordo Livre, 36% of Brazilians say that losing a job or a reduction in income compromises their ability to pay their bills, leading many into debt.

The study, which interviewed nearly 150,000 people, also revealed that high interest rates (18%) and financial mismanagement (14%) are among the main reasons for the difficulty in settling debts. Additionally, illnesses and medical leaves (9%), as well as loss of income (5%), compromise debt payments, as unexpected situations that generate health expenses can result in delinquency.

Extra: Pesquisa revela que desemprego é a principal causa da inadimplência no Brasil

3. Strong internal sales boosts Brazilian economy by 0.3% in May

The Brazilian economy grew by 0.3% from April to May, driven by strong domestic consumption. Compared to May 2023, the expansion was 1.3%. Over the past 12 months, accumulated growth reached 2.4%. This data comes from the GDP Monitor, released this Tuesday (16) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV).

GDP Monitor serves as a preview of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), measuring all goods and services produced in the country over a specific period. FGV’s study includes a detailed analysis of the indicators that make up the GDP. The research is conducted quarterly to better understand the data trajectory and avoid occasional distortions.

BOL: Com demanda interna aquecida, economia cresce 0,3% em maio, diz FGV

4. Survey shows 46% of Brazilians believe the country improved in 2024

A survey by the Brazilian Federation of Banks (FEBRABAN) reveals that 46% of respondents believe the country improved compared to 2023, the same percentage as in the April survey. The group that considers the country to be the same as last year increased to 31%, one percentage point higher than in the previous survey. The “FEBRABAN Radar” assesses society’s perceptions and expectations about life, economic circumstances, and national priorities.

The optimism is also reflected in expectations for the rest of the year. According to 55% of respondents, the country is expected to improve, while 23% believe things will remain the same. Since February 2023, the population’s positive outlook for the future has remained stable and above the 53% recorded during that time.

Poder 360: 46% dos brasileiros acham que país melhorou em 2024, diz pesquisa

5. High dollar threatens Brazil’s place in the ranking of largest economies 

With the devaluation of the real against the dollar, the forecast that Brazil would surpass Italy to become the eighth-largest economy in the world in 2024 has become more uncertain. This estimate, made at the beginning of the year, was celebrated by President Lula. However, the high price of the dollar in Brazil has been attributed to increased political turbulence and concerns about the country’s fiscal balance, leading markets to believe there will be no further cuts in the basic interest rate (Selic) in 2024.

Between 2010 and 2014, Brazil was the seventh-largest economy in the world. The country dropped out of the top 10 in 2020, ranked 11th in 2022, and rose to 9th position in 2023. The last time Brazil held the position of the eighth-largest economy in the world was in 2017.

IstoÉ Dinheiro: Com dólar alto, Brasil vê ameaçado posto de 8ª maior economia do mundo em 2024